Nigeria Attracts $16.78bn Capital In Nine Months As Portfolio Flows Dominate

Nigeria recorded $16.78 billion in capital importation in the first nine months of 2025, driven largely by foreign portfolio flows, according to newly released figures from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published delayed capital importation reports for the second and third quarters of 2025, showing Nigeria received $11.1 billion across those two quarters alone. When combined with the first-quarter figure, total inflows for January to September reached $16.78 billion, surpassing the $12.32 billion reported for the whole of 2024.

Quarterly data showed sustained momentum through the year. Inflows stood at $5.64 billion in Q1, $5.12 billion in Q2 and $6.01 billion in Q3. The third-quarter figure represented a 17.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase.

However, the composition of these inflows remains the central issue for policy makers and investors. Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) made up the largest share, with more than 97 per cent of total capital importation in the period attributed to short-term and yield-seeking flows. In Q3, portfolio investment alone came to $4.85 billion, accounting for more than 80 per cent of quarterly inflows.

Bond-related inflows increased strongly during the period, while money market instruments also stayed high despite some moderation compared with Q2. By contrast, foreign direct investment (FDI) improved only gradually and remained much smaller.

FDI rose from $126 million in Q1 to $143 million in Q2 and $296 million in Q3. Even with that improvement, cumulative FDI for the first three quarters stayed below $600 million, far below the more than $14 billion recorded under portfolio flows over the same period.

The delayed release of Q2 and Q3 figures had already triggered concerns in the market. For nearly six months, only Q1 data was publicly available, even as senior officials referenced stronger capital inflows in public comments. Some officials cited around $21 billion for the first ten months of 2025, but investors did not have full quarterly breakdowns to assess durability, sector concentration or risk exposure.

The eventual publication addresses part of that transparency gap, but questions remain about data timing and communication consistency, both of which matter for external investor confidence.

Sector-level details showed a heavy concentration of inflows in financial services. Banking attracted over $3.1 billion in each of the first three quarters, accounting for more than half of total inflows throughout the period. The financing segment drew $2.10 billion in Q1, then eased to $873 million in Q2 before rebounding to $1.86 billion in Q3.

Taken together, banking and financing absorbed roughly 70 to 80 per cent of imported capital in the year’s first nine months.

Outside finance, activity was more limited. Manufacturing rose to $261 million in Q3, telecommunications climbed to $209 million, and the electrical sector posted a spike of $456 million in Q2. Agriculture fluctuated between $24 million and $67 million, while oil and gas attracted comparatively low inflows relative to the sector’s size.

Technology, health, construction and real estate also remained smaller recipients.

Analysts note that Nigeria has seen a similar pattern before. In 2019, high domestic yields drew sizeable portfolio inflows into fixed income and money market assets, but those positions later reversed after monetary easing and the COVID-19 shock, with consequences for foreign exchange stability.

That history has renewed debate about quality versus volume of capital importation. While the current figures signal stronger market appetite and improved access to external funds, the dominance of portfolio flows means Nigeria remains exposed to sudden reversals if global risk sentiment shifts or domestic policy direction changes.

For authorities, the key challenge will be converting short-term financial inflows into broader, longer-horizon investment that supports production, jobs and foreign-exchange resilience. For investors, the latest data confirms momentum, but also underlines the need to watch structure as closely as headline totals.