Nigeria Inflation Eases To 15.10% In January 2026 As Food Prices Drop

Nigeria’s inflation rate eased to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, with food prices posting a sharper decline, according to new data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said headline inflation dipped from 15.15 per cent in December 2025 to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, a marginal drop of 0.05 percentage points. Even though the movement was small, it extended the recent moderation in consumer prices and will likely shape discussions at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

On a year-on-year basis, the change was much larger. The January 2026 inflation reading was 12.51 percentage points below the 27.61 per cent posted in January 2025. That comparison points to a slower pace of price increases than what households faced a year earlier.

Month-on-month figures also showed a strong shift. Inflation came in at -2.88 per cent in January 2026, compared with 0.54 per cent in December 2025. The NBS data indicates that the broad price level in January was lower than in the previous month.

Still, medium-term pressure has not disappeared. The 12-month average CPI for the period ending January 2026 stood at 21.97 per cent, compared with 17.59 per cent in January 2025. That means prices have cooled from their peak pace, but average inflation over time remains high.

Food inflation, a key pressure point for many Nigerian households, recorded the most notable improvement. Year-on-year food inflation slowed to 8.89 per cent from 29.63 per cent in January 2025. Month-on-month food inflation fell to -6.02 per cent from -0.36 per cent in December 2025. The 12-month average food inflation also declined to 20.29 per cent from 38.47 per cent.

The NBS linked the drop in food prices to lower costs for staples and protein items, including water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon (egusi), cassava and cowpeas.

Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy items, also moved lower. It was 17.72 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, down from 25.27 per cent in January 2025. Core month-on-month inflation was -1.69 per cent, while the 12-month average core inflation stood at 22.84 per cent.

A location split in the report showed urban inflation at 15.36 per cent year-on-year and rural inflation at 14.44 per cent. Both readings were lower than levels seen in 2025 and suggest that the slowdown in price growth was not limited to one part of the country.

Before the release, several market analysts had projected inflation might rise slightly within a 15.15 to 16.25 per cent band. The January outcome came in below those expectations, especially with the month-on-month contraction.

For policy makers, the figures present mixed signals. The month-on-month and food components suggest improved supply conditions and softer short-term pressure. At the same time, the elevated 12-month averages indicate that inflation is still above comfort levels for businesses and households.

The CBN is expected to weigh these trends alongside liquidity conditions and exchange-rate stability in deciding whether to hold, tighten or begin a cautious adjustment of policy settings. A sustained drop in food prices could support a less aggressive stance, but authorities may still seek firmer evidence that disinflation will hold over several months.

For now, the January CPI report offers cautious relief: price pressure has moderated, food costs have eased, and inflation has continued to slow compared with the same period last year.