Nigeria Requires 12% Annual Growth To Achieve $1 Trillion Economy Target – Minister

The Minister of Finance has disclosed that Nigeria will need to achieve a sustained annual GDP growth rate of 10 to 12 per cent to realise its ambitious target of becoming a $1 trillion economy. This revelation underscores the magnitude of the economic transformation required to position Nigeria among the world's largest economies.

Speaking at a recent economic briefing, the minister outlined the government's strategic roadmap for achieving this milestone, which hinges on a combination of structural reforms, massive infrastructure investment, and unlocking the potential of key sectors such as housing and agriculture.

"To reach a $1 trillion economy, we cannot afford the modest growth rates of the past. We need double-digit growth consistently over the next decade," the minister stated. "This is an ambitious but achievable target if we implement the necessary reforms and maintain fiscal discipline."

The plan centres on several pillars designed to stimulate economic expansion. First, structural reforms aimed at improving the ease of doing business, reducing regulatory bottlenecks, and attracting foreign direct investment. The government has already initiated reforms in the oil and gas sector, banking sector, and foreign exchange market, though many of these changes have resulted in short-term economic pain for ordinary Nigerians.

Second, infrastructure investment is expected to play a crucial role. The administration plans to channel significant resources into roads, railways, power, and digital infrastructure to reduce the cost of doing business and improve productivity. The minister noted that Nigeria's infrastructure deficit currently shaves an estimated two percentage points off GDP growth annually.

Third, the housing sector is being positioned as a major driver of economic growth. The government aims to stimulate construction activity through mortgage reforms and public-private partnerships that could create millions of jobs while addressing the country's estimated 20 million housing deficit.

Economists have expressed mixed reactions to the target. While acknowledging that a $1 trillion economy is within Nigeria's reach given its abundant human and natural resources, many question whether the political will exists to implement the difficult reforms required. Previous administrations have announced similar ambitious targets that were never achieved.

The World Bank has projected Nigeria's GDP growth at around 3.5 per cent for 2026, well below the 12 per cent target. To bridge this gap, Nigeria would need to dramatically improve its productivity, attract significantly more investment, and diversify its economy away from oil dependence.

The minister remained optimistic, pointing to the potential of the digital economy, creative industries, and agricultural value chains to drive growth. He also emphasised the importance of macroeconomic stability, including controlling inflation and managing the exchange rate, as prerequisites for achieving the target.

Achieving a $1 trillion economy would place Nigeria firmly in the top 20 global economies and significantly expand opportunities for its growing population. However, the path to this goal remains fraught with challenges, including security concerns, policy inconsistency, and infrastructure deficits that have hindered growth for decades.