Nigerian Stock Market Adds N24.4tn in Two Months as Earnings and Pension Policy Lift Demand

Nigeria’s stock market posted a strong start to 2026, with total market value rising by N24.4 trillion in the first two months of the year as investors increased exposure to equities.

Data from the Nigerian Exchange showed market capitalisation closed at N123.76 trillion on Friday, up from N99.38 trillion at the start of January. That represents a 24.5 per cent increase in two months, with February accounting for the larger share of the rise.

In January, capitalisation climbed by N6.8 trillion to N106.15 trillion. In February, the market added a further N17.61 trillion, after briefly touching about N125 trillion on February 20 before easing slightly.

Traders and analysts linked the acceleration in February to policy changes by the National Pension Commission, which expanded equity investment limits for pension funds across RSA Funds I, II, III and VI-Active. The adjustment increased room for pension managers to buy listed shares, and fresh liquidity moved quickly into the market.

Within a week of the policy update, equities gained N6.79 trillion, underlining the speed of institutional demand.

The NGX All-Share Index also advanced sharply. The benchmark closed February at 192,826.78 points, up 23.9 per cent year to date from its opening level of 155,613.03 points. The index rose 6.3 per cent in January to 165,370.40 points and then jumped 16.6 per cent in February.

Market participants said the rally has not been driven by speculation alone. They pointed to company earnings releases, dividend expectations and broader policy signals as key support factors.

Analysts cited several tailwinds: liquidity build-up ahead of the 2027 general election cycle, portfolio rebalancing away from low-yield federal bonds, banking recapitalisation pressure from the Central Bank of Nigeria, relatively steadier foreign-exchange conditions, moderating inflation trends and ongoing fiscal and tax reforms.

They also said reforms introduced in 2025 are still feeding into market pricing in 2026.

The equities market delivered a 51.2 per cent return in 2025 despite double-digit inflation, and investors appear to be extending that momentum into the current year.

The Central Bank’s decision to lower the Monetary Policy Rate to 27 per cent was also seen as supportive. Analysts said the move aimed to strengthen the naira and attract foreign portfolio inflows, conditions that can support risk assets when confidence improves.

David Adnori, vice president at Highcap Securities, said the January-February performance reflected improving macro stability and stronger foreign investor interest. He said demand has remained firm in dividend-paying counters as listed firms publish full-year 2025 results.

Aruna Kebira, managing director of Globalview Capital, said expectations around 2025 earnings and better macro indicators helped push market value higher. He said relative returns on equities compared with fixed-income instruments have continued to attract participation and could support activity through the first quarter.

Kebira said the technical rally began in December 2025 and that most earnings released so far have been strong, even in cases where results came in slightly below estimates.

For now, the market’s direction points to sustained confidence in listed equities, supported by earnings strength, policy adjustment and a rotation out of low-yield debt instruments.